During the federal election of 2022, two groups played a significant role in determining the results: women and younger voters.
With another election on the horizon, will these groups influence the outcome once more?
To explore this inquiry, I accessed data from the Australian Election Study (AES) covering the years 1987 to 2022 to analyze voting trends across various demographics over time.
My findings revealed that, in general, Australian women and young voters lean towards leftist parties.
Nevertheless, particular electoral issues can greatly influence outcomes, underscoring the importance of the political atmosphere in each election. So, what might we anticipate this time?
A shift to the left
The previous year showcased an widening divide in political affiliations between genders on a global scale.
Younger women are becoming more progressive, whereas younger men—especially those in Generation Z (born post-1994)—are adopting more conservative views in several nations, such as the United States, China, South Korea, and Germany.
My review of Australian figures reflects these global patterns, albeit with a unique aspect.
Young women in Australia are significantly moving toward the left. However, in contrast to many other countries, young Australian men are also shifting leftward, albeit at a more gradual pace.
The progressive trends of Australia's younger generations can be seen in their ideological self-assessments and voting behavior during federal elections.
In the 2022 election in Australia, the Coalition achieved its lowest percentage of votes from women, securing only 32%.
Among Millennials, only 24.3% cast their votes for the Coalition (21.9% of men and 25.7% of women).
These figures represent the lowest backing for either major political party from younger demographics recorded in the survey's history.
For Generation Z, a slightly higher percentage of 24.6% supported the Coalition (34.0% of men and 19.8% of women).
What is influencing this trend?
The leftward trend among women can theoretically be attributed to various factors, such as increased education, enhanced participation in the workforce, and exposure to feminist ideals. Despite Australia’s image of being modern and fair, ongoing gender disparities and discrimination also contribute to this shift.
On the other hand, the movement of young men toward the left is likely linked to progressive and egalitarian upbringing. Additionally, unlike other nations, Australia doesn’t have prominent figures akin to Donald Trump to rally anti-feminist or extreme conservative ideologies, which reduces the prevalence of such views on a broader scale.
Part of this leftward movement can be seen as a generational phenomenon—or at least a reflection of contemporary times.
The generational perspective is significant, as the upcoming federal election in 2025 will be the first where Millennials and Gen Z will together surpass Baby Boomers as the primary voting demographic in Australia.
This transition is expected to influence how political parties strategize their campaigns, identify their target audiences, and prioritize issues.
Voter concerns centered on policy
My investigation reveals another vital aspect. Throughout the study period, voter choices have become increasingly influenced by policy matters, with 48% of Australians identifying these issues as the key factor. This was followed by party affiliation at 29%, party leadership at 14%, and local candidates at 9%.
In 2022, 54% of the electorate indicated that policy matters significantly influenced their voting decisions.
Throughout various election cycles, I pinpointed the key issues that stood out as influential among voters. I incorporated these topics into my model to analyze the political tendencies (liberal-conservative) of individuals who prioritize these concerns and to assess any differences in political views between men and women. Additionally, I took into account other known influences on voting behavior, such as:
demographic elements (educational background, relationship status, social class, home ownership, and rural versus urban living)
parental influence (the political preferences of respondents’ parents)
social connections (affiliation with religious groups or labor unions)
the electoral landscape (candidates’ views on issues deemed important by respondents)
In general, it appears that women are marginally more liberal regarding policy matters than men. Although statistically significant, this difference is small, and the trend is consistent across both genders.
When compared to Baby Boomers, each subsequent generation shows a greater tendency to support left-leaning parties. Generation Z stands out as the most progressive group, though their smaller sample size necessitates caution in generalizing results.
So, who aligns with which party?
It is expected that individuals cast their votes for candidates they believe will best address the issues they care about.
Those who prioritize economic factors such as interest rates, taxation, or economic management tend to lean towards right-wing parties. Conversely, voters who are more preoccupied with matters like healthcare, Medicare, and climate change are inclined to support left-leaning parties.
Education level, social class, and social networks also play a significant role. Voters who are well-educated, from working-class backgrounds, non-religious, and those affiliated with unions generally favor left parties. This pattern also includes individuals who were raised in households with leftist views.
Although these influences may slightly differ between men and women, the general trends remain consistent.
What might happen in 2025?
Election topics are notably relevant to the times. For instance, the Goods and Services Tax was a major point of discussion in the 1998 election but lost significance post-2004.
In recent times, issues related to the environment, health, and Medicare have gained prominence among Australian voters of all ages as they head to the polls. This trend gives the Labor Party and the Greens a significant advantage concerning issue ownership.
Currently, concerns about the cost of living, which includes daily expenditures, interest rates, and housing affordability, have emerged as the pivotal topic of this election cycle. Initially, the Coalition is typically perceived as more competent in economic management among the two leading parties.
However, my evaluation of the 2022 election data indicates that, in comparison to the 2019 elections, a reduced number of voters viewed the Coalition as the best choice in economic management for those who prioritized this issue.
Moreover, for the first time in the last five elections, more voters saw Labor as more in line with their opinions regarding immigration, refugees, and asylum seekers. These topics, historically strong for the Coalition, are expected to play a crucial role this election.
This situation presents a challenge for the Coalition. On the other hand, Labor faces a dual challenge: to retain younger, progressive voters while also addressing more widespread economic concerns.
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